Fuel prices are expected to rise on Monday, but forecasts differ on the size
Industry forecasts point to a sharp rise in diesel and petrol from 21 September, with published estimates differing by around two cents per litre.
Archived after its publication day. Search retains this original briefing for background and accountability.
Archived 12 September 2026Drivers can plan for a higher bill without treating a forecast as a guaranteed pump price, because each retailer and station sets its own final price.
- Published estimates range from about 6.5 to 8.5 cents per litre for diesel.
- Petrol estimates range from about 5 to 6.5 cents per litre.
- These are forecasts, not a regulated national pump price.
- The actual price varies by station, retailer, discount and product.
Why there are two headline estimates
ANAREC and other market calculations use available wholesale and tax information to estimate the weekly change. Their published figures do not fully agree: diesel estimates differ by about two cents per litre, and petrol estimates by about 1.5 cents.
The useful conclusion is the direction and broad size of the move, not a promise that every pump will change by one exact amount. Retailers can adjust prices and promotions differently.
Check the real price before a large fill
Compare nearby stations after Monday's updates, including any card or supermarket discount conditions. A lower displayed price can still be a worse deal if it requires spending elsewhere or applies only to a specific fuel.
Businesses should keep the station invoice and separate forecast assumptions from the actual recorded cost. DGEG's public price information can help with comparison once live prices are reported.
What you can do now.
- 01
Budget for an increase rather than one exact figure.
- 02
Compare live station prices after Monday's update.
- 03
Check the conditions attached to any discount.
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