Economists expect growth to slow after the summer
The latest CIP–ISEG barometer points to slower momentum through the second half of 2026, with energy, finance and the end of the recovery programme among the risks.
Archived after its publication day. Search retains this original briefing for background and accountability.
Archived 12 September 2026This is a forecast range, not a confirmed result or a prediction for an individual household or company.
- The barometer expects growth to moderate in the second half of 2026.
- No quarterly growth in the second half would still imply about 2.1% for the year.
- A stronger official quarterly path could lift annual growth nearer 2.4%.
- Energy costs, financing conditions and the end of PRR investment remain risks.
A range, not a single outcome
CIP and ISEG present scenarios rather than a final GDP figure. Their central message is that the pace seen earlier in the year is unlikely to continue unchanged, while public investment and external demand can still alter the result.
Forecasts depend on assumptions and are revised when new data arrive. The 2.1% and 2.4% figures describe different paths, not competing measurements of current output.
Build decisions around cash flow
Households and businesses should test commitments against their own income, interest costs and energy exposure. A national growth forecast does not remove the risk of a job loss, weak local demand or a delayed project.
Keep a downside case and review it when the Bank of Portugal, INE or the budget process supplies new evidence.
What you can do now.
- 01
Maintain a base and downside cash-flow case.
- 02
Identify exposure to energy and variable-rate borrowing.
- 03
Revisit assumptions when official quarterly data arrive.
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