Banco de Portugal raises its 2026 growth forecast to 2.3%
The central bank now expects Portuguese GDP to grow 2.3% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027, revisions of 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points from June.
Archived after its publication day. Search retains this original briefing for background and accountability.
Archived 12 September 2026A national forecast is not a promise about household income, jobs or property values. It is useful context for budgets, but individual decisions still need their own evidence.
- Private consumption is projected to grow 3.1% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027.
- Investment growth is projected at 5.6% in 2026 before slowing to 1% in 2027.
- Energy prices and geopolitical tensions remain downside risks to activity and upside risks to inflation.
A stronger near-term projection
Banco de Portugal attributes the 2026 revision to stronger expected exports, concentrated PRR execution and recently announced budget measures. It expects growth to moderate after this year as the exceptional public-investment impulse fades.
The bank projects private consumption growth of 3.1% this year, 2.1% in 2027 and 1.7% in 2028. It also expects the household saving rate to fall by 0.9 percentage points to 11.4% in 2026.
What the forecast cannot tell you
GDP describes the economy as a whole and can rise while one sector, region or household remains under pressure. The projection also depends on assumptions about energy, external demand, interest rates and public investment.
Use it as a scenario input rather than a personal financial forecast. Stress-test a mortgage, move or business plan against slower growth and higher costs as well as the central case.
What you can do now.
- 01
Use the central-bank figures as context, not a personal guarantee.
- 02
Test budgets against a weaker-growth and higher-cost scenario.
- 03
Check later releases before making a long-term commitment.
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